Commentary by Ralph Bivins, Editor, RealtyNewsReport: Houston is No. 1 in the nation in job growth. So why are Houston’s local economists forecasting a puny 2014?
Houston added 82,000 jobs in 2013, a 3 percent gain over the previous year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number will be revised, probably downward, but Houston will remain an economic star.
Yet some remain skeptical. Consider the widely reported job predictions by Houston’s top prognosticators:
- Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston, says the Houston area will create only 65,000 new jobs in 2014.
- Patrick Jankowski, the Greater Houston Partnership’s vice president of research, is predicting only 69,800 new jobs will be created this year.
Their projections that job growth will taper off are pegged on moderation in energy exploration and a general belief that Houston’s economy can’t sprint forever without taking a breather. But we heard a different story from the speakers at the Urban Land Institute /CoreNet Global luncheon last week. The executives – from Shell Oil, Chevron and BHP Billiton – say they have seen no evidence of moderation on the horizon. Energy exploration may decline this year, but the giants – Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, and more – are still relocating thousands of employees to Houston in 2014.
While I make no claims to be an economist, it looks like Gilmer and Jankowski are going to miss by a mile by predicting fewer than 70,000 new jobs for Houston in 2014.
Just look at what’s going on with the creation of construction jobs: home builders are moving into high-gear, Hines is starting a 1 million-square-foot building in downtown, PM Realty is planning a $1 billion redevelopment of the Exxon Chemical campus, and billions will be spent for new projects this year in the Energy Corridor, Uptown and The Woodlands.
With all of this new construction, it would be surprising if the Houston area falls below 80,000 new jobs in 2014. And Houston’s job creation total for the year could go even higher than that. The boom is not over.